With the American elections on a knife edge, it is worth asking why that is the case. Whatever one thinks of Kamala Harris and the Democrats, Trump represents something that is far, far worse. And yet — according the polls — Trump has just as good a chance as Harris does.
Trump and J.D. Vance have support, as any political movement does, because they express the real concerns of ordinary people. Some of those concerns are real (like rising prices) and others are invented (immigration). But they are the concerns expressed by many, including many from the working class and even trade union members.
If it were all clear and simple, the president of a major union would not have addressed the Republic National Convention this year. And that same union would not have declared its neutrality in this year’s election.
Trump’s support among white, male, working class voters is well-documented. In 2016, he was elected because he won states that were historically identified as America’s industrial heartland in the mid-West, as well as sweeping the south. Working people in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have nothing to gain from a Trump presidency. And yet they voted for Trump in large numbers. And polls show those three battleground states as still being up for grabs. Trump could win all of them.
Kamala Harris is running, as she must, on Joe Biden’s record. And to be clear, it is a good record. Biden is perhaps the most pro-union president in American history and certainly the first to walk a picket line with striking workers while in office. What Biden and Harris failed to achieve — and it’s a long list — they blame on the Republicans in Congress.
One problem with this is that some of the more left-wing policies championed by Senator Bernie Sanders are actually quite popular. For example, had the Democrats passed Medicare For All, recognising healthcare as a human right, they would have been in a better place today.
If Trump wins, one reason will be failure of the Democrats once again to pass the labour law reform bill known at the PRO Act. This bill, had it become law, would have led to very rapid growth of the country’s unions.
And we know from studying how people vote that if you want those white, working class males to back Democrats, sign them up to unions. Union members learn from experience that things like racism and sexism are bad ideas. Unions teach workers to vote for candidates who will make their lives better — and not just offer tax breaks to the rich.
But Democrats have had the PRO Act (and its predecessors) on a back burner for decades. Every Democratic president says he will sign it into law, but none do. As a result, unions are not experiencing the growth spurt they need to survive. And the Democrats are not benefitting from a reinvigorated, dynamic labour movement. That kind of union movement would help reduce the Republican party to something resembling Britain’s Tories today.
If the Democrats continue to ignore working class voters, and fail to use their time in office to pass legislation like Medicare for All or the PRO Act, they will never be able to rebuild the coalition first created by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. And Roosevelt, it should be recalled, not only created the welfare state as part of his plan to deal with the Great Depression — he also got pioneering labour rights legislation passed. That legislation helpe do trigger the biggest growth spurt American unions have ever seen.
There are lessons from Roosevelt’s time in office for the Democrats today. If they fail to heed them, the nightmare of a second Trump presidency can become a reality.
This article appears in this week’s issue of Solidarity.