{"id":240,"date":"2008-01-20T07:32:43","date_gmt":"2008-01-20T05:32:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/?p=240"},"modified":"2008-01-20T07:32:43","modified_gmt":"2008-01-20T05:32:43","slug":"after-nevada-how-edwards-can-still-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/after-nevada-how-edwards-can-still-win\/","title":{"rendered":"After Nevada: How Edwards can still win"},"content":{"rendered":"

CORRECTION:<\/strong> A couple of people have pointed this out to me – the numbers I was reading off the Nevada Democratic Party website were for the delegates to the state convention. The actual number of voters was 116,000 — a record. Edwards got considerably more than the numbers I give in the first two paragraphs, below. And one respected political commentator has written to tell me that Edwards’ actual vote total was probably closer to 10%. Still, it was a disaster and the rest of my column stands.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Let us begin by being completely honest. John Edwards suffered a stinging defeat yesterday in Nevada. He polled only 3.75% of the vote state-wide. Fewer than 400 people in the state voted for him. In Clark County (where Las Vegas is), Edwards polled only 1.5% of the vote. There, where Hillary Clinton won over 4,000 votes, Edwards had 115 supporters. The scale of the defeat cannot be overstated — this was catastrophic<\/strong>.<\/p>\n


\nAnd in a sense, unexpected. There were Edwards rallies in Nevada attended by hundreds of his supporters. In Reno three days ago, it was reported by a number of sources that Edwards had 1,500 people at a rally. If so, that would have included every single one of his voters in the state, plus 1,100 Obama and Clinton voters as well. And let’s not forget the two sets of polls that barely a week ago showed all three candidates in a dead heat.
\nEdwards has lost a major battle, and his chances to win the presidential nomination have been considerably reduced, to say the least. His opponents have now written him off completely. The mainstream media, which ignored him when he beat Hillary Clinton into third place in Iowa, has even more reason to ignore him. And I presume that many of his supporters are having second thoughts this morning.
\nWith all the ups and downs of the primary season, there are two things that I have consistently said about the Edwards campaign. First, that John Edwards represents the most progressive candidate we’ve seen in a generation<\/strong> (or more). And second, that were he to win the Democratic nomination, he’d beat any Republic candidate<\/strong>. I still believe those things are true, even if he did have Kucinich-like results in Nevada.
\nI knew — we all did — that he was going to have a hard fight against Clinton. And when Obama entered the race, it became clear that Edwards’ chances of winning the nomination were made even slimmer.
\nOnly if one of the two front-runners withdraws from the race will Edwards now have a shot at the nomination. Is this possible? It is, and it is even likely.
\nIf Clinton continues to win primary after primary, Obama may at some point withdraw. In the last few decades, this is what happens in Democratic Party politics. You fight it out in the first few states, and then you gracefully withdraw from the race and back the front-runner. In 2004, this is what Dean, Clark, Gephardt and Edwards all did. By early March 2004, John Kerry was the only man standing (among candidates with significant support).
\nThis is what it is likely Obama will do — or Clinton, should their fortunes be reversed. Expect one of them to pull out shortly after Super Tuesday, 5 February.
\nAnd this where an opportunity arises for John Edwards. By the morning of 6 February, the race will probably be all over according to the pundits. Senator Clinton is likely to be the front-runner, and Obama — if he follows the pattern of all recent elections — will withdraw. If John Edwards decides to stay in the race, even with a relatively small number of delegates, and challenges Clinton in the remaining states — of which there are dozens — he may pick up many of the former Obama supporters. And the race will get interesting again.<\/strong>
\nThe first round of post Super Tuesday states takes place on 9 February, and includes Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington. These are followed by Maine, Washington DC, Virginia and Maryland. In other words, of the first seven post Super Tuesday states, there are key southern and border states where Edwards could expect to do well in any event. Were Obama to leave the race (or Clinton for that matter), there is a clear opening for an insurgent candidate challenging the establishment. John Edwards is perfectly suited to play that role.
\nAccording to reports last night, Edwards is staying in the race. I’m glad he’s doing so. Whether he wins or loses, this is a fight worth fighting<\/strong>. And based on the experience of previous primary campaigns, in which all the candidates except the front-runner withdraw early on, it is a fight he can still win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CORRECTION: A couple of people have pointed this out to me – the numbers I was reading off the Nevada Democratic Party website were for the delegates to the state convention. The actual number of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-john-edwards-08"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=240"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ericlee.info\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}