For\nsome time now I\u2019ve been arguing that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders\nis the front-runner in the race to be the Democratic candidate to\nface off against Donald Trump in November. A few months ago, and\neven a few weeks ago, that was a debatable proposition. Today, it is\na view shared by nearly everyone paying careful attention to the\nDemocratic primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The\nmain competitors to Sanders are falling away one by one, their\nweaknesses on clear display to all. Biden, once seen as the\nfront-runner, has no base of enthusiastic supporters and very little\nmoney left in his coffers. Warren, another early leader in the race,\nseems a spent force despite her very effective recent debate\nperformance in Las Vegas. Buttigieg, who polls showed has near-zero\nsupport among Black and Latino voters, proved in Nevada that once he\nleaves behind the largely white, rural states, his run for the\npresidency has slowed to a crawl.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Former\nNew York City mayor Michael Bloomberg was the great hope for the\nDemocratic party\u2019s \u201cmoderates\u201d \u2013 a term the media uses\nbecause no one wants to call those who oppose the party\u2019s left\nwing, well, right-wingers. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But\nfive minutes into Bloomberg\u2019s first appearance on the debate stage,\nhis candidacy began to tank. Arrogant, ill-informed and totally\nunprepared for challenges from candidates who\u2019ve been campaigning\nfor many months, he completely flopped. From the point of view of\nthe Sanders campaign, that\u2019s a pity. A contest between Sanders and\nBloomberg, a democratic socialist versus a billionaire, would have\nbeen almost ideal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If\nSanders does well in the upcoming South Carolina and Super Tuesday\nprimaries, he has a clear path to winning the Democratic nomination. \nBut can he beat Trump?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump\nhas raised more money than any of the Democratic candidates. His\nrallies are larger than that of most Democrats. Polls continue to\nshow that he commands the support of at least 40% of voters,\nsometimes more. He can also count on the fact that incumbent\npresidents running when the country is not in the throes of an\neconomic crisis are rarely defeated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In\nother words, it will be a massive challenge to whoever wins the\nDemocratic nomination to defeat Trump. But Bernie Sanders can do it\nfor the same reason why he won Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His\nvictory in Nevada shows what he needs to do to defeat Trump. He did\nexceptionally well among Latino voters, who comprise a very large\npart of the American electorate. He is enormously popular among\nyoung voters, especially those under the age of 30. Unsurprisingly,\nhe does well among independents and others who do not consider\nthemselves to be loyal members of the Democratic party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The\nonly demographic where Biden and others still lead Sanders is the\nover 65s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If\nSanders can pull together the same coalition of forces across the\ncountry in November as he just did in Nevada, he will win the\nelection. In fact, he will do more than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some\n\u201cmoderate\u201d Democrats have warned that Sanders is reprising the\nrole of South Dakota Senator George McGovern who also pulled the\nparty to the left, back in 1972. McGovern went down to a historic\ndefeat at the hands of Richard Nixon. He won only one state to\nNixon\u2019s 49. It was a catastrophe for the Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But\nthere\u2019s another comparison to be made to an earlier election and it\ntook place a mere eight years before McGovern\u2019s defeat. In the\n1964 elections, the Republicans ran the most extreme right-wing\ncandidate they could find, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. The\nDemocrats had Lyndon Johnson, the former Texas Senator who had been\nJohn F. Kennedy\u2019s Vice President until Kennedy was assassinated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Johnson\nwas not a particularly appealing candidate, and was very much a\nWashington insider. But he had the strong support of Black\ncommunities and trade unions, which at the time were still a force to\nbe reckoned with in American politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And\nhe won by a landslide. His administration not only enacted voting\nrights laws and other civil rights measures, but initiated both a\n\u201cwar on poverty\u201d and Medicare, the first serious attempt by the\nfederal government to make health care a human right, at least for\nsome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The\n\u201cmoderates\u201d may be right, and maybe Sanders is too left-wing to\nwin. Maybe he is a 21st<\/sup>\ncentury version of McGovern, and by choosing him the Democrats are\nsetting up the country for the nightmare of four more years of Donald\nTrump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Or\nmaybe Bernie Sanders, with the coalition we just saw in Nevada, will\nbe more like Lyndon Johnson, and will defeat not only Trump, but the\nRepublican party in Congress. With majorities in the Senate and\nHouse of Representatives, and with many Democrats supporting Sanders\u2019\nprogressive agenda, this could be the beginning of a new, radical era\nin American politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n