Edwards still standing

“He doesn’t know it’s a damn show! He thinks it’s a damn fight!” – Apollo Creed’s trainer, “Rocky” (1976)


For once the pundits and the pollsters seem to have gotten it right. South Carolina was a big win for Obama; Clinton did take second place; and Edwards got nearly precisely the numbers predicted for him in the last Zogby/CNN poll. They can now calmly return to doing what they were doing before, confident that what they say is true and that everyone is doing what they have been scripted to do.
Except that John Edwards is not doing what he is supposed to do. He doesn’t know it’s a damn show. He thinks it’s a damn fight.
Edwards is staying in the race, as he has always said.
His advisors are saying things like “look at the polls in Oklahoma” where Edwards is running a strong second, where Obama has little support. And people like myself have been saying for some time that one of the two celebrity candidates, the ones getting all the media attention, is likely to pull out of the race at some point, possibly as soon as the morning after Super Tuesday. If Edwards is still standing, it will be him against just one of them.
More practical types are saying that Edwards is staying in the race so that he can show up at the Democratic National Convention in Denver with truckloads of delegates, and play the role of king-maker (or perhaps emerge as a dark horse favorite after a few rounds of deadlocked balloting).
But I think he’s staying in the race because he actually believes the things he’s saying. He really does want to guarantee health care for all, end poverty in America, and strengthen trade unions.
In the next few days, the squabbling between Clinton and Obama is likely to become uglier and meaner than before. If you thought Bill Clinton was a vicious attack dog before South Carolina, wait till you see him now. The mainstream media called this race a long time ago, and are baffled at Edwards for still being in the ring this late into the fight. (Meaning, those that even notice he’s there.)
John Edwards has survived four rounds in the ring with the political equivalents of Apollo Creed. His nose may be broken, his eye may be cut, but he is still standing. Call him stubborn or call him persistent, but I grow more impressed with him every day.
Senator Edwards — as long as you are in this fight, I am behind you.

1 Comment on "Edwards still standing"

  1. Frank Llewellyn | 27/01/2008 at 14:21 |

    There are reasons for Edwards to stay in the race that go beyond thinking he will either be the nominee or a kingmaker.
    The nominee will either be Clinton or Obama. Neither is going to drop out short of the convention, because they will have enough money to compete through the convention, and Feb. 5th is not likely to be decisive.
    Both will get enough out the 22 state brawl to be able to continue, and both will still have a legitimate shot at the nomination.
    Edwards by staying in the race, forces both Clinton and Obama to compete for his voters and both are beginning to do that.
    People sometimes forget that an important part of this unique American process is taking from your opponents message.
    This is actually quite important and will be the final aspect of Edwards influence on the campaign.
    Remember that the race is not being fought over the candidates official programs. In fact if you go to their web sites you will see that the formal differences between their official positions are quite narrow. Edwards is clearly the most progressive, and Obama the most cautious.
    But the campaign really has not been about those programs. It has been about message and story.
    Finally you have to look at the exit polls more closely. I think that you will see Clinton back off the negative back and forth and Obama will follow suit.
    It clealy dammaged Clinton far more than Obama. Edwards picked up voters and Clinton’s expense. Those pundits who argue that Bill Clinton’s role in the campagn may be reminding voters of all of the things that they dislike about the Clinton presidency may be correct. If that is the case we will see some evidence of that in the Super Tuesday results.
    Edwards problem is that he does not have enough money to compete all of the 22 states. It is unlikely that he will have paid media in California or New York. He is trying to concentrate in a few states and do well enough to force the media to cover him.
    Do not look for the race to conclude before the Ohio primary. Post Feb 5th thanks to all the local politicians who front loaded the process we will return to a system of contesting a few primaries at a time. If Edwards has managed to score a few seconds he will continue to get some money, and may get a chance to compete more effectively in the post Feb 5 primaries.
    At the end of the month we will see the candidates year end financial reports. This will give us a glimpse of how they will be able to compete after Feb. 5th.
    Obama, because he has attracted so many donors will actually have more potential that Clinton who is counts much more heavily on donors who have now maxed out their contributions.

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