Archive for the ‘Web exclusive’ Category

Goodbye GoodReads, Hello LibraryThing

Saturday, April 20th, 2013

I like to keep a record of the books I’ve read, and like millions of others, have found online communities to be a good way of doing this.

In recent years, I’ve used two of these – GoodReads and LibraryThing.

I recently began using GoodReads more because it, unlike LibraryThing, had an app for my phone and tablet.

But a couple of weeks ago, Amazon bought GoodReads — a good business move on their part.

Now they can sell even more books to people, and to people who we know enjoy reading.

I don’t boycott Amazon, despite all the terrible things they do, but if I have a choice, I take it.

I just closed down my GoodReads account and have moved everything over to LibraryThing.

Unicode, Drupal, PHP, MySQL: A love story (not)

Wednesday, April 10th, 2013

I have been trying to do something fairly simple: I wanted to write a web page that could render well on a small screen (like a mobile phone) and which would display content from the IUF website.  How hard could this be?

Well, it shouldn’t have been hard.

The content on the IUF site, which is handled by a content management system called Drupal, is stored in a MySQL database.  The characters are encoded as Unicode (UTF-8) — because that’s what you need to do when you have multilingual content on your site, and the IUF site works in Arabic, Chinese, Russian and many other non-Latin languages.

So it should have been fairly simple to write a few lines of code in the widely-used PHP programming language to read news headlines from the IUF’s database and show them on screen.

Except that it was showing gibberish every time there was an accented character.

I posted a message calling for help on the Drupal forums.  (Not a big response there.)  I wrote to three very smart friends who understand these things and they all had good ideas, and pointed me in different directions, but to no avail.  Nothing was working.  One suggested that I give up.  I nearly did give up.

And then I decided to search again, and found this page where a programmer named “HoboTraveler” (I’m guessing that’s not his real name) encountered a similar problem on January 21st, 2008, more than five years ago.  He writes asking for help, gets loads of tips, tries a million things, nearly gives up, and then, dozens of comments later, he solves the problem.

He writes:

I think I got it to work with multiple databases!

I’ve inserted the line:

mysql_query(‘SET NAMES utf8′);

just after the mysql_connect() and it seems to work.

So I thought, what the hell, I’ll try that.  I tried everything else.  And “HoboTraveler”, whoever you are, you made my day.

Lesson of the story: sometimes life is hard.  And thank God for Google.

An Israeli government without Netanyahu is still possible

Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013

A month ago, I published on my blog a short article entitled “Is this Netanyahu’s final month in office?

It contained several predictions about the Israeli elections — which is always a colossal mistake, as how can one possibly make accurate predictions about such a thing?

So here is what I said:

“The right wing alliance headed up by Netanyahu has lost much of its strength. “

I didn’t make a prediction about how much, but cited polls showing them dropping from 45 seats to 36. In fact, it was even worse for them.

“Kadima will disappear. “

Very close. Kadima just squeaked past the minimum of 2% to get two Knesset seats — instead of the 19 seats polls showed it winning a year ago, or the 28 seats they won in 2009.

“Kadima’s voters have defected to two new parties – Yesh Atid and Hatnuah.”

Got that one right. Of the 28 seats won by Kadima in 2009, they’ve divided up with 19 going to Yesh Atid, 6 to Hatnuah, and 2 to Kadima. It seems as if nearly every Kadima voter from 2009 decided to try one of the three centrist parties this time.

“The major left wing parties — Labour and Meretz — have stalled. “

I pointed out that the combined Labour-Meretz vote had stalled, as polls a year ago showed them winning 22 seats and that had hardly changed — it was 23 when I wrote the article. The actual result was 21 seats for the two parties.

The last of my observations was that “Shas is not necessarily a coalition partner only for the right.” I stand by that today.

Which leads to the coalition I suggested a month ago:

“Labour and Meretz form the government with 23 seats, in coalition with the two new centrist parties which get 20 seats. They are supported by 11 seats in the Arab parties and invite Shas into the government with its 11 seats.”

That would have been 65 seats. The actual vote totals today are better.  We have 21 for Labour and Meretz, 27 for the three centrist parties, and 12 (more than I predicted) for the DFPE, Balad and the UAL (the so-called “Arab parties”).   That’s 60 seats, half of the Knesset.  Toss in Shas with its 11 seats (exactly as predicted). That would be a relatively stable coalition of 71, and would leave the Netanyahu-led opposition with just 49 seats.

It would not be the first time Shas sat in government with Labour — this was the case when Yitzhak Rabin won his spectacular victory in 1992 and again in 1999 when Ehud Barak defeated Netanyahu for the first time.  In fact, when Labour has governed the country, it has always done so in coalition with religious parties.

The key, of course, is Shas. If the central issue facing the nation is religious conversion, or civil marriage, or drafting religious students into the army, then Shas shouldn’t be part of the government. But if the main issues — the life or death issues — are the fight for a renewal of the peace process with the Palestinians and for greater social justice inside Israel, then Shas is a potential partner.

The last words of my article a month ago remain true today:

“Yes, the most likely scenario is that Netanyahu pulls together a coalition, but it’s not inevitable.”

Who’s going to win the Israeli elections? Actually, no one knows

Wednesday, January 16th, 2013

The Israeli elections are just six days away and the consensus in Israel and abroad is that Benjamin Netanyahu will once again be elected prime minister, heading up a coalition of right-wing and ultra-orthodox political parties.  And the polls do seem to confirm this.  The latest poll on the popular Israeli website Walla shows the right-wing parties winning 49 seats out of 120, and together with a projected 18 seats for the ultra-Orthodox parties, they can scrape together a majority.

But as Walla goes on to say in their analysis, a week is a long time in politics.

Actually, they don’t say that — but what they do is look at the results of polls taken a week before the last elections.

And the comparison is, in my view, really interesting.  It even offers a ray of hope.

Just before the 2009 elections, polls showed the following:

  • Kadima winning 23 seats – but in reality, it won 28, making it the largest party.
  • Labour was expected to win 17 seats, but won only 13 - a historic defeat, and Ehud Barak’s last as leader of the party.
  • Meretz, which polls showed getting 6 seats, won a very disappointing 3.
  • The Arab party Balad was projected to win no seats at all, but won 3.

These are massive gaps between what polls project and actual results, unlike, for example, the extraordinarily accurate polling we saw in the USA in the run up to the 2012 election (and analyzed brilliantly in the FiveThirtyEight blog by Nate Silver on the New York Times website.

These are errors of tens of thousands of votes.  Each Knesset seat won in 2009 represented over 28,000 votes.  So Meretz had something like 85,000 fewer voters than polls were showing.  And Kadima had 140,000 more voters than was projected by polls.  Considering that only 3.4 million people vote in an Israeli election, those are enormous numbers.

I won’t go into the reasons why polls in Israel are so inaccurate, but with potential swings of five seats to or from the large parties, alternative scenarios begin to emerge.

Leaving out the question of whether Netanyahu really can gather up all the right-wing and religious parties (and Shas is absolutely not in his pocket, for example), what would it take to bring the center-left to power?

A shift in the polls of 7 Knesset seats.  That’s all.

If the left and center parties could pick up 7 more seats, they’d be able to form a government.  And by that I mean a government without relying on any of the religious parties, all of which have been happy to join up with Labour-led governments in the recent past.

In 2009, polls showed just two parties from the center and left — Kadima and Balad — picking up 8 more seats than predicted.

And of course the polls don’t really take voter turnout into account either.

Here’s what we know about voter turnout in recent Israeli elections:

  • 2009 – 64.72% Right wing government comes to power with the second lowest voter turnout ever.
  • 2006 – 63.55% Lowest voter turnout in history – Kadima and Labour come to power, Likud is crushed, winning less than 9% of the vote.
  • 2003 – 67.81% Ariel Sharon, then heading up Likud, wins the election.
  • 1999 – 78.7% Labour’s Ehud Barak elected prime minister, forms a government with a wide range of parties, including religious ones –  partnering with Shas, Meretz, Yisrael BaAliyah, the Centre Party, the National Religious Party and United Torah Judaism.

Those results should also serve as a reminder of the fact that in the last four national elections, Labour came to power twice (in coalition), the Likud won once when Sharon was leading it in the direction of withdrawal from Gaza and a two-state solution, and only once (in 2009) did Likud win under Netanyahu’s leadership, and even then it wasn’t the largest party (Kadima was).

To sum up:

  • Israeli elections are complicated.
  • Polls are no indication of what will happen on election day.
  • Netanyahu is eminently beatable.
  • Israelis tend to vote for governments that they see as moderate, not extremists.
  • Voter turnout is what matters – the left does much better when it approaches 80%, as it did in 1999, 1996 and 1992.

Don’t give up on the Israeli center-left.  The results next week may well surprise.

 

 

LabourStart’s first book is published – and what unions can learn from our experience

Monday, December 31st, 2012

bookcoverI’m very pleased to announce today the publication of LabourStart’s first book - Campaigning Online and Winning: How LabourtStart’s ActNOW Campaigns Are Making Unions Stronger.

Many labour and left organizations publish books, but nearly all of them have to put up a lot of money to do so and wind up with cartons of unsold books piling up in their offices.

We’re doing this differently, using print-on-demand technology with no upfront costs for us at all.

This is the lowest-cost, lowest-risk way for small, under-financed organizations to publish books and I wonder why others haven’t done so.

I encourage you to buy a copy to see how this turns  out, to feel that it’s something you can hold in your hand, and looks quite professional, I think.  If you want to know more about how we did this, email me.

Goodbye, Gmail

Sunday, December 30th, 2012

Like many of you, I’ve been a loyal user of Gmail for many years now.  When it first came out, Google’s web-based email service left all the others behind.  It was very fast and we loved it.

But I’ve decided to drop Gmail for several reasons and move on, and here are the three that have spurred me to make the decision to end 2012 by abandoning Gmail.

First, I hate the fact that Gmail by default shows us our emails in descending order by date.  If you receive many emails every day, the newest ones are displayed prominently and the oldest ones float down to the bottom of the list.  And you can’t change this, at least not in any way I could find.  Which means that you wind up reading your newest emails and answering them before you get to the bottom of the pile.  This is what we call ‘last in, first out’ and it is very bad practice.  It’s far better to answer your oldest emails first – which you can do in Gmail, but it’s not easy.

Second, I’ve never liked the way Gmail threads discussions, because it sometimes means that I miss messages or don’t answer messages if several people reply to something I wrote and it all has the same subject line.  I prefer the old fashioned way of showing individual emails.

Finally, I’m concerned about Google’s privacy policy.  When you use a free service like Gmail, you are the product – not the client.  The client is the company buying advertising, and to fund Gmail, Google’s computers read your email messages and serve you up advertisements that they calculate will interest you.  Of course there is no one sitting there at Google individually reading through your emails — but that’s not the point.

So I’ve been looking around for an alternative and for a while actually considered using Microsoft’s new Outlook.com, which has replaced Hotmail. It’s good but not good enough, and anyway, who wants to use a Microsoft product again?

So instead I’ve gone back to one of the pioneers of web-based email, Fastmail, which is now owned by Opera.  Several years ago I was a Fastmail customer because it offered exactly that – very fast email.  (It still does, even with its new, more modern interface.)

Today I’ve come back to Fastmail because it allows me to sort messages as I want to  (by date, with the oldest ones on top); it allows me to see my messages as individual ones, not in threads; and as a paying customer (and not a product) I’m not shown invasive advertising that raises concerns about my privacy.

I found the process of importing all my messages from Gmail to be a relatively simple one (though it took several hours, as I had many thousands of messages to import) and when I did turn to Fastmail‘s tech support on two occasions, I got quick and accurate responses from them.

On my Android phone, I had been using the web browser to access my emails, but have just started using K-9 Mail instead and it seems quite good for this purpose.  (K-9 Mail is a free app, available on Google Play.)

So far I’m pleased with Fastmail and encourage others to check it out.

Is this Netanyahu’s final month in office?

Friday, December 21st, 2012

I am usually completely wrong about predicting election results but there are certain trends in polling for the Israeli elections (which happen in another month) which may be of interest.  Taking the long view — comparing polls today to what they were showing a year ago — gives us a indication of trends which may (but also may not) continue in the next month.  Here are some of the more interesting ones:

The right wing alliance headed up by Netanyahu has lost much of its strength.  A year ago, the two parties (Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu) were polling at 45 seats (out of 120 in the Knesset).  This would have represented a gain of 3 seats over the 42 they won (separately) in the last elections.  The latest polls I’ve seen show them at 36 – in other words, a drop of 9 seats, or 20%, in just a year.

Kadima will disappear.  Like so many large centrist parties that have come before it (Dash in 1977 was the first), Kadima was never destined to have a long life as Israeli voters return in large numbers to the traditional parties.  Polls a year ago showed Kadima winning 19 seats.  Today, it’s at 0 (zero).

Kadima’s voters have defected to two new parties – Yesh Atid and Hatnuah.  These two together, in the lastest polls, have 20 seats.  So that’s where the Kadima voters have clearly moved to — instead of to the parties of the left.

The major left wing parties — Labour and Meretz — have stalled.  A year ago, they polled at a combined 22 seats; today they’re at 23.  That’s not much of an improvement, but not bad considering the defection of at least one major figure (Amir Peretz) to a new party (Hatnuah), and the appearance on the political map of several new parties competing for the vote of the pro-peace center.  Holding their own in this environment is not a bad thing.

Polls of Arab and Haredi voters are almost impossible to do accurately — and no one can begin to guess what turnout will be like.  At the moment, polls are showing 10 seats for the 3 “Arab” parties (the largest of which, Hadash, is actually a Jewish-Arab party).  This is pretty much what they got in the last Knesset elections (11), so it looks more like a guestimate than actual scientific polling.  If any of the Arab parties are blocked from running — and both UAL and Balad are under threat — votes could shift toward Hadash.  Were Hadash to reap the benefits and walk away with 10 mandates (unlikely, but possible), it could be third largest faction in the Knesset.

Shas is not necessarily a coalition partner only for the right.  Polls continue to show a strong result for the Sephardic party – 11 seats instead of the 10 they won last time.  Remember that the Rabin government formed in 1992 had Shas (and Meretz) as coalition partners.  That coalition held together for several years, allowing the conclusion of the Oslo process and the first rays of hope for peace in the region.  Shas could be wooed again into a post-election coalition with parties of the center and left.

So, is a government not headed by Netanyahu possible?  Yes, it is.

Here’s one possible scenario — Labour and Meretz form the government with 23 seats, in coalition with the two new centrist parties which get 20 seats.  They are supported by 11 seats in the Arab parties and invite Shas into the government with its 11 seats.  That’s 65 seats — denying a majority to Netanyahu and sending him off to the political wilderness where he belongs.

A slightly more optimistic scenario shows the left, center and Arab parties getting 10% more than polls currently show — so instead of 54 seats, they get 59.  Then they find partners in some small partners – e.g., Am Shalem, now polling at 3 seats, and don’t even need Shas.  That would give them 62 seats, which is a majority, albeit a very small one.

Yes, the most likely scenario is that Netanyahu pulls together a coalition, but it’s not inevitable.

Why I hate Twitter

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

Once again, my Twitter account (erictlee) and LabourStart’s (labourstart) have been hacked, and spam direct messages sent to followers.

Twitter’s advice when this sort of thing happens is to change your password, which I’ve done, but there’s another bit of advice worth paying attention to:

Chances are there are many applications that can access one’s Twitter account, especially if you’ve been online for a while and have tried new things. Among the apps that I discovered had access to my Twitter account were the following:

  • Klout
  • Pinterest
  • About.me
  • Flipboard
  • Ning
  • Linkedin
  • Act.ly
  • Posterous

And several more.

In revoking permission for all these apps, I’ve locked the barn door as it were.  I recommend that others also change their Twitter passwords and consider revoking permission especially for apps they don’t use.  (Did I ever use Pinterest?  Or About.me?)

Apologies to all those who got stupid spam direct messages from “me” as a result.

Bomber Command and Historical Memory

Thursday, June 28th, 2012

This article now appears on Harry’s Place where an extensive discussion is taking place. Please feel free to add your comments there.

One of the things that struck me when I interviewed Vietnam veterans two decades ago for my book, Saigon to Jerusalem, was what happened to them when they returned home from the war.

It was not so much that they were spat upon (which happened, but rarely) or honoured (which also happened, but even more rarely) but that they were ignored.

They were invisible. It was a war that most Americans wanted to forget.

It was a long process for the Americans to come to terms with Vietnam and the process began with the building of that extraordinary memorial in Washington DC, with its stark rendering of the names of each of the tens of thousands of Americans who died there.

Today in London, the Queen is dedicating a new war memorial in Green Park to the memory of the more than 55,000 British airmen who fought and were killed while serving in Bomber Command during the Second World War.

This new memorial may serve a similar purpose, both for the surviving veterans who will finally feel honoured and no longer invisible, but more important, it will help ignite a debate about historical memory.

(more…)

What are they waiting for?

Sunday, December 11th, 2011

(A German language version of this article appeared in Jungle World.)

Two weeks ago, I found myself standing together with 62 locked out workers in front of a metal factory in Gebze, Turkey, just outside Istanbul. The workers, members of Birlesik Metal-IS (the metal workers union), have been denied access to the factory since July. A line of riot police stood just inside the factory gates, shields at the ready. Other police were situated inside the factory itself, with a large police bus parked just outside.

The company, a Turkish subsidiary of GEA (a transnational company based in Bochum, Germany) claims that the workers held three illegal strikes lasting 15 minutes each. The “strikes” took place during the workers’ tea breaks and lunch. Turkish labour courts and an independent investigator appointed by the company have already ruled that GEA is in the wrong, but they’re refusing to budge.

What makes the dispute interesting is that GEA is considered to be a “responsible” employer — one which is not usually considered to be hostile to unions. In fact, it is one of a number of companies which have signed international framework agreements with the Geneva-based International Metalworkers’ Federation (IMF). This is significant because though it is a German company, some 60% of its employees are based in other countries.

The framework agreement, signed in 2003, acknowledged the company’s social responsibility and the basic right of all employees to establish and join unions. It explicitly committed the company to respect ILO Conventions No. 87 (Freedom of Association) and No. 98 (Right to Collective Bargaining). That agreement was followed by similar framework agreements between the IMF and other German-based multinationals including Volkswagen and DaimlerChrysler.

In locking out the 62 workers in Gebze, the management of GEA were clearly in breach of that agreement. They have refused to meet with the union or the IMF.

One of the speakers on the picket line that day, Kirill Buketov of the International Union of Foodworkers, said that GEA’s decision to ignore the framework agreement and attempt to break the union in Turkey was a “declaration of war” on the international trade union movement.

Adnan Serdaroglu, the leader of Birlesik Metal-IS said to the demonstrators “if GEA has enough courage, then let GEA go to Germany and do the same to German workers — dismiss the German workers because they are unionised.”

At the request of the IMF, LabourStart subsequently launched an online campaign demanding that the employer meet with the union, reinstate the sacked workers, and reach an agreement. The campaign is running in a dozen languages, including Arabic and Hebrew — and German [http://tinyurl.com/clvdo38].

The IMF is currently pressing both IG Metall and the DGB to play a more active role, and to mobilise their own members to support the locked-out Turkish workers. So far, very little support has been shown by German workers and their unions for the locked-out workers at GEA.

This is a very familiar story.

Just two months earlier, another global union federation — UNI Global Union — asked LabourStart to launch an online campaign targeting another German employer, Deutsche Telekom.

That campaign protested Deutsche Telekom’s refusal to allow employees at its US subsidiary, T-Mobile USA, to join a union.

According to the Communication Workers of America (CWA), the employer used threats and scare tactics to block efforts to organise. In a campaign the union describes as “brutal”, its says that “management distributes memos and manuals that instruct managers on how to stop organising efforts and orders its security guards to harass workers interested in organising. Job advertisements for human resource managerial positions stress union avoidance. Upper level management refuses to even talk to counterparts at CWA.”

UNI says it has sought to engage Deutsche Telekom through an international framework agreement that would set the rules for global behaviour by the company. “While such an agreement was close to fruition under former Deutsche Telekom management”, says the union, the “current management has refused to sign any document that impedes its campaign of union avoidance.”

UNI might well learn a lesson from the experience of the International Metalworkers Federation: the signing of a framework agreement is no guarantee that workers rights will be respected.

Some other global union federations have put a freeze on signing such agreements, as the experience with employers like GEA shows that they are no substitute for union power on the ground.

Meanwhile, working through UNI and LabourStart, the CWA teamed up with Ver.di in a campaign to flood the email inbox of Deutsche Telekom CEO Rene Obermann with messages demanding that the company “enter into an agreement to end all interference and respect the right of the workers to decide for themselves about whether or not to join the union.”

Over 10,000 people sent email messages to Obermann, who had one of his subordinates write a long response to each one, defending the company. UNI issued an equally long and detailed rebuttal. At the moment, there is a stalemate.

The two struggles, at T-Mobile USA and GEA in Turkey have a lot in common. The employers are German companies that are unionised at home and that have had dialogue — and in one case, an agreement — with global union federations to respect workers’ rights abroad.

They are not like Wal-Mart, a company that notoriously does not allow unions in any of its stores and that will even close down a store to block unionisation.

Deutsche Telekom and GEA are typically “enlightened” post-1945 German companies, apparently keen to cooperate with unions in a social partnership that benefits everyone.

Except that when they can, they behave just like Wal-Mart.

To put it bluntly, when forced to deal with powerful unions like IG Metall and Ver.di, these employers carefully cultivate a warm and fuzzy image of social partnership.

But when dealing with much weaker unions in the USA or Turkey, they behave like thugs — bullying and threatening, sacking workers and blocking union organising campaigns.

But they are vulnerable, as the response of Deutsche Telekom to the email campaign has shown. They don’t want the bad publicity and the possible loss of sales revenue that might result. If the online campaigns were to grow even larger, particularly with the support of thousands of German trade unionists and other activists, it might be enough to get them to back down.

And of course email campaigns are not the only weapons unions have.

IG Metall and Ver.di, which have so successfully defended the rights of their own members at home in Germany, can perhaps put a little bit of pressure on the two companies as a gesture of solidarity with their brothers and sisters in Turkey and the USA.

What are they waiting for?